At the recent UC Counselor Conference, it was clear that with an $813 million shortfall this year, times are tough at the University of California.

Every campus is currently overenrolled, and UC is not getting state funding for the extra 14,000 students. The freshman enrollment target is certain to decline this year. UCLA is overenrolled by 1,700 California students. Since resident fees don’t come close to covering the cost to educate a student, when the state doesn’t fund those 1,700 extra students, UCLA’s budget is further strained.

Campuses that were previously not very competitive have become more selective. The admit rate at Santa Cruz went from 74% in 2008 to 64% in 2009. Santa Cruz is expected to be slightly more selective this year, but the difference won’t be as dramatic as we have seen in recent years. Davis, which has become very popular in recent years, admitted 68% of students back in 2006, and just 46% in 2009. Berkeley did not cut enrollment last year, but will do so this year. 

In the past, UC eligible students who were not admitted to more selective campuses would be referred to Riverside and Merced, even if they hadn’t applied to those schools. But this year students who are willing to attend those campuses should apply, because the referral process will be sharply curtailed.

UC Irvine used a waitlist year for the first time in 2009, and there is discussion of a possible systemwide waitlist for 2010.

There is good news for students who are Eligible in Local Context (ELC), meaning they are in the top four percent of their class. They will be again be guaranteed admission to Davis, Irvine, Riverside and Santa Barbara.

While freshman enrollment will decrease, UC will have a modest increase in spaces allotted to for transfer students.

The changes on UC campuses will go well beyond admissions. A hiring freeze on permanent faculty, fewer lecturers and teaching assistants, bigger classes, curtailed library hours, and reduced support services are some of the ways the budget crisis is impacting the UC. 

While admissions directors stressed that every effort is being made to keep the cuts from impacting the classroom experience, there’s no way around it. Students may have to take classes at 8am or 5pm. Some programs and courses will be cut. Freshmen currently graduate from UC in 4.25 years on average, but that could increase if it becomes more difficult to get classes. Students will have a different UC experience than their older siblings might have had a few years ago.

The cost of attending a UC will go up, with a midyear increase and then a substantial increase for fall 2010. The amount will be set in November, but the current $26,400 average total cost could top $28,000 next year. Part of the increase in fees will go to financial aid, to minimize the impact on needy students.

I left the conference thinking I will advise my students who want to attend a UC campus to apply widely this year. Students who would easily have been admitted to their favorite UC campus in the past could be disappointed.

While their transcript is set at this point, seniors can still improve their prospects for admission by improving their standardized test scores and making the most of the personal statement on the UC application.

Freshmen, sophomores and juniors should start planning now if they want to be in a strong position to apply to the UC in the next few years.

Admissions deans at private colleges have been worried that the recession would mean a decrease in enrollment this fall, but according to a new survey by the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, it looks like most schools will maintain or even slightly increase enrollment.  Many colleges kept tuition increases to a minimum, and increased financial aid and merit scholarships, in order to remain competitive with public universities.  Some schools also accepted late applications.  Admissions officers at many colleges are trying to minimize “summer melt” by continuing to reach out to students who have submitted enrollment deposits, hoping that regular contact will keep them committed to the school.  These steps probably account for the fact that about 74 percent of responding colleges are not projecting a decline in enrollment.  The problem is that many of these schools will have a tough time continuing the enhanced financial aid/scholarships and minimal tuition increases after this year.  If the recession lingers, the fears about falling enrollment will likely become reality at some colleges. 

When the wealthiest university in the country announces layoffs, it’s clear that no insitution is immune from the effects of the dismal economy.  Due to a projected 30 percent drop in its endowment, Harvard will be laying off 275 staff members, and that’s after freezing salaries and taking other cost-cutting measures during the past year.

There’s been a lot of talk about how the economy has impacted admission this year, but if you’re getting ready to apply to college, it’s even more important to know how financial pressures could affect the quality of the educational experience at a college.  Harvard is still a wealthy institution, but other schools may be forced to make changes that could impact your choices. If a college is increasing the size of the freshman class because it needs more tuition revenue, students could find larger classes and crowded triple dorm rooms.  More classes might be taught by graduate students rather than full professors.  Some courses and even whole departments could be eliminated.  If you are excited about a school’s linguistics major, or the opportunity to receive a stipend for doing summer research on campus, you want to know that those programs will be there when you arrive. Colleges could also make cuts in athletic programs, academic advising or health services.

All of this means that it is more important than ever to do your research. On college visits, you can see if the buildings and grounds are well-maintained. Ask admissions officers how the economy is impacting the school. Talking to students is always a great way to learn what’s really happening on campus. They can tell you if they have trouble getting into classes, the library has started closing earlier and it takes four weeks to get an appointment with a career advisor. As always, the more information you have, the better prepared you are to make decisions about college.

I just returned from the Western Association for College Admissions Counseling (WACAC) conference, where I got the latest information from admissions officers. The good news for seniors planning to apply to the University of California is that the essay prompts will be the same, so you can start working on those essays now. The not so good news is that UCLA and Berkeley are likely to reduce freshmen enrollment next year. Once the state has a budget and UC knows what the funding will be, enrollment goals for next year will be set for each campus. With increasing competition for fewer seats, it’s more important than ever to submit a strong application. Berkeley received 850 appeals this year and only admitted 10 of those students, so the chance of reversing a decision is very low.  It’s tough to get motivated when you’re burned out from an overloaded junior year, and it’s fine to take a couple weeks to rest, but then you need to start working on that personal statement, so that you have plenty of time to prepare your best application. 

The admit rate at many UC campuses will probably drop again for the fall 2012 freshman class, when new eligibility requirements mean that more students will be eligible for admission. Younger students should make sure they’re on track with curriculum choices as well as summer and extracurricular activities that will enhance their UC application. While the 2012 applicants will no longer be required to submit SAT Subject Test scores, students who plan to apply for certain programs, like engineering, will be more competitive if they have strong math and science Subject Test scores. 

Colleges across the country saw their endowments fall over the last year, and since it’s tough to implement big tuition increases at a time when families are feeling financially stressed, some schools have decided to bring in extra money by enrolling more students. Wesleyan will add 120 students over the next four years. Amherst plans to have 180 more students by 2012. Williams will add 10 students next year and Bowdoin plans to add 10 students in each of the next five years. Johns Hopkins University plans to double the number of transfer students. 

And there are plenty of parents who are eager to pay close to $50,000 a year for these schools. While other colleges are likely to see declines in enrollment as families choose lower-cost public universities, highly selective colleges will remain very competitive. Amherst and Williams have received enrollment deposits from a higher percentage of admitted students this year. Rice University has also seen an increase in the percentage of students accepting an admission offer. It may be that in a time when employment prospects are uncertain, families are willing to sacrifice to send their children to highly selective colleges in the hope that a diploma from an elite school will secure their future.

I received an email yesterday from the admissions director at the the University of Washington in Seattle saying that the waitlist will be very important this year. That is likely to be the case at many colleges.  Because of the state of the economy, it is much more difficult to predict who will accept an offer of admission.  I think we’ll also see waitlist activity continue later this year, because if families find their financial circumstances deteriorating over the summer, students who sent in a deposit might cancel their enrollment and attend their local community college. The good news is that if you are waitlisted at your favorite college, and can afford it, your chances of being admitted could be much better than in recent years.

US News & World Report has come out with another college list. The magazine used yield, which is the number of accepted students who end up enrolling at a college, to come up with a list of the most popular schools. It’s probably not a surprise that Harvard had the highest yield, with 79 percent of admitted students deciding to attend the school.  Schools with a strong religious affiliation, like Brigham Young University and Yeshiva University, also had high yields, because the students who apply to these schools are usually very motivated to attend. Some public universities have high yields because they provide great value. As with all magazine rankings, don’t give them too much weight.  Yield doesn’t indicate the quality of education. A high or low yield can be impacted by tuition, early decision applications and other factors.

Even though US News no longer uses yield in their annual rankings, colleges still care about keeping that number up, because a high yield makes them seem desirable, and that can bring more applications and more donations from alumni.  This year, it will probably be more difficult for enrollment managers to predict yield, because many students have applied to a lot of schools and plan to wait and see where they get in and what their families can afford. That could mean more students being admitted from the wait list as colleges attempt to meet their enrollment goals.

It’s official. The University of California received a record number of applications for fall 2009. Almost 127,000 students applied, an increase of nearly 5 percent over last year. Freshman applications are up 3 percent and transfer applications are up 11 percent.

The increase in applications comes at the same time that UC plans to reduce freshman enrollment by 6 percent. The good news is that Berkeley and Merced will actually admit more students. UCLA will see less than a 1 percent reduction in the freshman class, and the number of applications held steady this year, so things shouldn’t change dramatically.  But since the number of applications increased at Irvine and Davis, both of which are targeted for substantial decreases in freshmen, those campuses are likely to be more competitive this year. Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz and San Diego received fewer applications this year, but San Diego is likely to remain quite competitive since the school will be reducing the freshman class by 12 percent. 

At least the rate of growth in applications seems to be slowing, since this year’s 5 percent increase is smaller than last year’s 9 percent.

The fallout from the economic crisis continues to impact colleges. It looks like Cal State University will deny admission to 10,000 eligible students this year. Students should complete their applications before November 30, since many campuses that in previous years accepted applications after the priority filing period will no longer do so.

The University of California may also cap enrollment. Funding cuts mean that reductions in programs and services have already begun and it will probably become more difficult to get into classes. Research opportunities and student support services will also be impacted.

It’s not just California schools that are dealing with funding cuts. Arizona State University is reorganizing academic programs and eliminating faculty positions. Even wealthy, elite schools like Stanford and Harvard have suffered losses in their endowments and are putting construction projects on hold and looking at other ways to cut costs.

A lot of gloomy news in recent weeks. But while this is a challenging time, there are still many college options and students who are open to possibilities will have lots of good choices.

This year, the state of the economy is a real concern for students, parents and colleges. Public schools in many states are dealing with the double whammy of funding cuts and increasing numbers of students seeking admission. This year’s admissions process could be the most unpredictable we’ve ever seen.

University of California campuses could be facing midyear budget cuts and will certainly have less funding next year, while applications will surely increase. Students who would have easily been admitted to UC Santa Barbara or UC Davis in previous years may need to apply to less selective UC campuses. Cal State University campuses are likely to become more competitive as families seek lower-cost options. Even Cal states that have accepted all eligible students in past years will be turning away students this year. We will also see more students starting at community colleges, which offer a low-cost path to a UC or Cal State degree, if those schools have the funding to accommodate them.

Since private colleges can cost over $50,000 a year, you might expect applications to be down at these schools. But early action applications are up over 10 percent at Yale. Northwestern University has received 15 percent more early decision applications this year. Many of the most selective schools announced more generous financial aid policies in the past year, and that may be part of the reason that more students are applying to these very expensive colleges.

But even New York University’s early decision applications are up two percent over last year, despite the fact that the school does not promise to meet full financial need. At George Washington University, early decision applications are up 30 percent. Students have made the commitment to attend these schools if they are accepted, without knowing what financial aid package they will receive.

This is supposed to be the peak year for students graduating high school and applying to college, and perhaps that’s why application numbers are rising at a number of private as well as public schools. Many students who are not committing to early decision will apply to both private and public colleges and wait to see financial aid packages, as well as the condition of the family finances, in the spring.

Students who are applying to private colleges and don’t need financial aid could benefit from the state of the economy. College endowments are down, donations from alumni are going to be more difficult to come by, and admissions officers at some colleges that have been need-blind in the past may be forced to consider financial need in admissions decisions.

For years, I’ve advised students to apply to at least one “safety” school, where we can be sure they will be admitted. In this economy, it’s also important to apply to at least one “financial safety” school.